What To Do About Donald? Part II
In early December 2020, I wrote an article about the problems faced by President-elect Biden in dealing with Donald Trump who had refused to recognize the results of the election and was asserting that Biden’s victory had been achieved by fraudulent means. At that point, the Democrats held a thin majority of seats in the House of Representatives and had a chance to win a fifty-fifty split of Senate seats. With an ambitious legislative agenda hanging in the balance, the last thing Biden wanted was to inflame Republican animosity by having the Department of Justice pursue efforts to hold Trump accountable for his misdeeds in office.
Being his own worst enemy, however, Trump was not inclined to lay low and let the Biden administration follow the nation’s well-established custom of not pursuing legal action against a former president. President Obama had adhered to this custom when he declined to pursue George W. Bush and Dick Cheney for leading the nation into the disastrous war in Iraq on the known false assertion that Saddam Hussein had developed “weapons of mass destruction.” Instead, projecting what he would do if he were in Biden’s shoes, Trump opted to take matters into his own hands and sought to overturn the results of the election. This effort ultimately failed and led to a second impeachment proceeding against Trump and virtually assured that the DOJ would have to pursue legal action against him and his co-conspirators.
When the leaders of the Republican Party had chosen to embrace Trump as their presidential nominee in 2016, they fully understood that there were risks in doing so. He was a known con man whose resume included a string of bankruptcies, failed marriages and sexual assault charges as well as his having previously been a registered Democrat. He also ascribed to no political philosophy and considered governmental policy “boring.” The sad truth was that they felt they had nothing to lose by making Trump their nominee. Trump already had a firm hold on their political base and had announced that he would not commit to support another as the Party’s nominee. This meant that as odious as Trump was, he still represented his Party’s best chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. See, “The Painful Birth of the Party of Trump.”
At the beginning, this gamble seemed to be working. Trump won the 2016 election and brought with him a majority in both the House and the Senate. He supported Republican efforts to drastically cut taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals and he slashed government regulations. He also was willing to appoint judges recommended by the Federalist Society. Still, there were ample troubling aspects about his presidency. His administration was a revolving door with well-regarded cabinet officers being quickly replaced by individuals with dubious experience, most of whom were never properly vetted and many of whom were never even submitted for Senate confirmation. He cast aside the Trans Pacific Partnership which united the the Pacific rim nations against China’s abusive trade practices. Similarly, he disavowed the nuclear arms deal with Iran and he attacked our NATO allies while heaping praise on Putin and Kim Jung Un.
Then came the Covid-19 pandemic which he badly mishandled. He had dismantled the efforts of the Bush and Obama administrations to address a public health crisis and he downplayed the threat posed by the pandemic asserting that it would go away as quickly as it had arrived. To make matters worse, he hamstrung the CDC causing it to echo the administration’s misleading talking points. While other world leaders enhanced their political stature by taking effective actions in combatting the spread of the virus, Trump squandered his political standing by ignoring the advice of his healthcare experts. By the time of the 2020 election the pandemic had revealed that Trump was an ineffective leader who was willing to endanger the lives of Americans in an effort to secure his own re-election. The result was that the Democrats regained control of the White House and both houses of Congress.
At this point, it was apparent that the Republicans’ “useful idiot” had lost his utility . . . even though he retained his hold on their Party’s voting base. The January 6th attack on the Capitol gave rise to a second Article of Impeachment against Trump. In many respects this was a God-send for Republicans. It provided them with chance to put an end to Trump’s political career, one that they could blame on the Democrats. Rather than chance being accused of conspiring with the Democrats, Mitch McConnell announced that his caucus should vote their conscience in the impeachment proceeding. While nine Republican senators did vote to remove Trump from office, that was well short of the 17 Republican senators needed to seal Trump’s conviction which would have permanently barred him from holding public office. Thus, the Republicans squandered their one definitive chance of disposing of Trump.
Trump has always had a vindictive personality and this had been evident throughout his presidency during which he fired untold members of his administration at the first sign of disloyalty. Following his second impeachment proceeding, Trump turned his vengeance on all of those Senate and House Republicans who had voted against him. The result was that virtually all of them either declined to run for re-election or lost their seats in primary elections. Most notably among them were Liz Cheney and Adam Kinsinger who went on to serve as members of the House Select Committee on the January 6th Attack on the Capitol.
In an effort to bolster a planned third attempt to seek the presidency, Trump has been raising money and helping individuals to run for Congress. Specifically, he supported the elections campaigns of fourteen individuals seeking a first term in the U.S. Senate. Of these, only four have been elected and two are still running but are not likely to win. It’s not just that Trump’s hand-picked Senate candidates did not do well, all Republican office-seekers suffered from the taint of his insistence that he was the rightful winner of the 2020 election. This includes eight election deniers who ran for governor and four who ran for secretary of state in battleground states.
The news is now filled with recriminations as to who should be blamed for the Republicans’ poor results in the 2022 election. Whereas Trump has been the clear first choice of Republicans to be their 2024 Presidential nominee, there is now polling indicating that Ron DeSantis has surpassed him. In American politics, it’s rare that a failed presidential nominee is given a second chance. In my lifetime, only Richard Nixon has been nominated to run for President after having previously failed to win. More importantly, Trump lost the popular vote in both of his previous elections and lost to Biden by over 7 million votes in 2020. Equally revealing, he lost when down-ballot Republicans generally did well. Thus, while Trump is generally well-regarded by Republican voters, he’s toxic to the remainder of the electorate. Larry Hogan, the out-going Republican governor of Maryland, recently pointed out that it’s “insanity” to try to do the same thing and expect a different result. This thought was echoed by former Trump acolyte, Mo Brooks, who argued that “it would be a mistake for the Republicans to have Donald Trump as their nominee in 2024.”
Last night Trump announced that he’s running for president in 2024. Although such announcements are rarely made this early in an election cycle, Trump had at least four possible motivations for doing so now. First, he may be trying to foreclose Ron DeSantis and other Republican hopefuls from mounting a presidential bid. This, however, could prove counter-productive as Trump’s chances of securing his party presidential nomination are much greater when faced with a field of lesser known politicians. This is how Trump won the 2016 nomination. In a one-on-one contest against DeSantis his chances of prevailing would be much lower.
Secondly, he may be operating under the assumption that by announcing his candidacy at this time he can also forestall indictments by the DOJ for his role in the January 6th insurrection and his effort to misappropriate government documents. This also seems to be a poor reason for prematurely starting his presidential campaign as Attorney General Garland has is under enormous pressure to proceed with an indictment against Trump and is unlikely to be influenced by Trump’s announcement that he’s running again.
Trump’s third reason for announcing his candidacy at this time might be to simply dispel the thought that he’s his Party’s “biggest loser”, an accusation which The Wall Street Journal made in a recent article. To be sure, Trump doesn’t take lightly attacks on his character in general and particularly those that characterize him as a “loser.” In such cases his instinct is to strike back. Unfortunately, this attack came from Rupert Murdoch who controls Fox News, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post which may have more influence over the Republican voter base than Trump.
The reason I find most compelling for Trump’s decision to commence his presidential campaign at this time was suggested by Michael Cohn, his former attorney. Cohen pointed out that Trump ran for President in 2016 not to win the election, but rather to simply generate notoriety that would enhance his business interests. Over the past three years, Trump has proven that he is a formidable fund-raiser, having garnered more than $200 million simply by seeking help to overturn the results of the 2020 election. By now renewing his effort to obtain a second term as President he could easily raise another $100-200 million before the 2024 elections.
There are two factors which give credence to this hypothesis. The first is that Trump undoubtedly understands that a tsunami of legal proceedings is about to inundate him and that his chances of actually winning in 2024 are very slim at best. He also fully appreciates that he needs to enhance his financial position as much and as quickly as possible just to be able to survive what lies ahead. Even more telling is the remark he made last night when he volunteered that he would be proceeding with a very small campaign staff in an effort to conserve his resources. This certainly doesn’t bespeak a man bent on proving that he’s not a “loser.”
The problem, however, remains that even if Trump’s first priority is to fortify his bank account, it’s still not in his nature to admit defeat. Trump’s determination not to quietly retreat from politics will continue to pose a serious problem for Republicans. They have a reasonably good chance of winning the White House in 2024 because the Electoral College favors them and the Supreme Court has shown its willingness to aid their efforts. Moreover, the new voting laws enacted in battleground states like Georgia, Florida and Arizona alone could skew the outcome of the 2024 elections in their favor. Their problem is that success may still be out of reach with Trump as their nominee. Equally troubling is that unless Trump is somehow prohibited from running, no other Republican may be able to win. That’s because Trump will not voluntarily go away and may do everything in his power to destroy his own party’s chances of winning the White House in 2024. Yes. That’s just who he is.
Trump has already declared war on Ron DeSantis, his current principal rival for the Republican presidential nomination; and his attacks have displayed a level of animosity indicating that he feels that his party owes him the 2024 nomination. Indeed, most Republican leaders fear that Trump has such a strong hold on their Party’s supporters, that he can’t be prevented from securing their Party’s 2024 nomination. Perhaps more frightening is the prospect that even if DeSantis or another Republican wins the nomination, Trump may decide to run as an independent candidate which would lead to an easy victory by the Democrats. Remember that George H.W. Bush’s re-election was undermined by Ross Perot’s third-party candidacy which allowed a little known governor from Arkansas to become President with only a little over 40% of the votes cast.
From the perspective of the Republicans, it would be fortuitous if the DOJ were to obtain a criminal conviction against Trump before the 2024 election. While there is clearly a good chance that the DOJ will indict Trump, at least for his mishandling of government records, before the end of this year, a conviction may be a long way away as Trump is well practiced in slowing the judicial process. Four years have now passed since the Congress first sought the production of his tax reruns and the matter is still being litigated. Similarly, it has now been three months since the DOJ executed its search warrant at Mar-a-Lago and the DOJ still has not been able to work with vast majority of the documents it recovered. Thus, it’s probably delusional to think that Trump will be convicted of a crime before the 2024 election. Even if a jury were to find him guilty his conviction will be tied up in appeals for several years.
No. Merrick Garland and the Department of Justice are not going to save the Republicans from the repercussions emanating from their 2016 decision to embrace Trump. They have a tiger by the tail and they alone are going to have to find a way out of their dilemma.
A cynical solution would be for the Party’s elected officials to simply stand in silence and allow the primary process to proceed. With a formidable war chest and roughly 40% of the Party’s supporters strongly behind him, the odds are still good that Trump (baggage and all) will win the Republican presidential nomination should he chose to do so. This would be a virtual certainty if the field of candidates totals more than a handful. The Party should then devote all of its financial resources to electing its down-ballot candidates, leaving Trump to fend for himself in the general election which he will likely lose. Nevertheless, with Trump on the ballot, his supporters will turn out and the Party will have a good chance of winning a significant number of down-ballot races which is what happened in 2020. While this will give the Democrats another term in the White House, it will bring Trump’s political career to an end and leave the Party in a good position for going forward.
Should Trump try, but fail, to secure his Party’s presidential nomination, his defeat wouldn’t be attributable to the Party’s leadership, giving its presidential nominee and down-ballot candidates a chance of winning their respective elections. Of course, Trump may still cry “foul” and encourage his supporters to sit out the election but that message will not resonate as loud with his adherents if the Party is perceived as not having caused his political demise. While Trump could still try to mount a third-party candidacy, by then he will have burned through most of his resources making that path for vengeance less attractive as he continues to defend himself in his myriad of legal problems.