Further Reflections
I didn’t bother to watch the President’s daily press briefing, which I later discovered was a mistake in that the President seemed to finally be recognizing the gravity of the pandemic. Rather than hyping the things that are being done by his taskforce to combat the pandemic, he actually started talking about just how bad things could get. He and his scientific advisers presented a model of the pandemic produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (or “IHME”) which showed daily deaths peaking around April 15th at approximately 2,400, with total deaths through August 4, 2020 being projected at 93,765. On the basis of that projection the administration was saying that it expected total deaths in the U.S. would be between 100,000 and 240,000. The President even said that “the next two weeks could be a very, very painful.”
I viewed this change in the President’s assessment of the pandemic as indicating that he had adopted a new strategy. He obviously now realizes that his “Happy Talk” strategy was likely to come back and bite him as the number of deaths started to multiply exponentially. Thus, he was essentially trying to move the goal posts back. The 100,000 to 240,000 projection would give him the opportunity to argue that if the final death toll was at or under the 100,000 figure, it would suggest he did a great job. My feeling at the time was that the President should have moved the goal posts outside the stadium as explained below.
While I considered the President’s move to have been in the right direction, his responses didn’t seem to match his new view of reality. The IHME projection cited by the President was premised on the assumption that the nation would be taking serious measures to slow the spread of the virus and that those measures would be held in place through the end of May. So far the President is only saying those measures should be maintained through the end of April. In addition, the IHME projection assumed that those states that had not implemented measures to slow the spread of the virus would do so within the next week or 10 days. The President has neither imposed such measures, nor insisted that the states do so. Lastly, governors from all over the country are crying that they can’t get the medical equipment and supplies that they need to combat the disease and are calling on the federal government to take over the job of procuring and distributing those items. Again silence by the administration. Thus, considering the President’s continued failure to take necessary action, it is difficult to see how he could even expect the actual death toll to be lower than the projected maximum number of deaths (240,000).
There was yet another problem. The IHME projection looked at the issue from a national perspective, assessing the total number of hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators that would be required. The problem is that the projection assumes that these items will be in the right places at the right times, which is not likely to be the case. New York has already increased its number hospital beds from 53,000 to 75,000, but it projects that it could need as many as 140,000. In addition, the beds that it has added are not ICU beds for which the shortfall is even more acute. On top of this, its healthcare workers are already stretched to the limit, and over the course of the next several weeks their workload is going to be at least twice as heavy as it has been. Thus, many patients who might have been successfully treated might go untreated and die. Thus, my assessment was that the nation-wide death toll would more likely reach, if not exceed, 250,000.
Also, the President’s statement that the next two weeks could be very painful seemed like more “Happy Talk.” “What would be causing the pain?” and “Why just two weeks?” Over the course of the next two weeks Americans are going to have to hunker down in their homes and worry about how long will the groceries in their refrigerator and pantry last and what will happen if they don’t pay their rent, mortgage or utility bills. Granted, this is not a cheerful prospect. However, it is sheer fantasy to think this condition will only last two weeks when the very projections on which the President has based his statement called for Americans to stay at home for two months, not two weeks. There is also the problem that the checks authorized by the recently passed legislation might not even reach them before the expiration of that period.
To be sure, the loss of a friend or relative would be painful, but over the next few weeks the number of fatalities could possibly be between 50,000 and 100,000 which is a very small fraction of the nation’s 327 million residents. Even over the course of the next six months the number of deaths would remain minute in relationship to the nation’s population. Of course, those who contract and defeat the disease could find themselves physically in distress for a couple of weeks, but again we are only talking about less than 1 million individuals and about 25% of them are likely to be asymptomatic.
The real pain would likely to be economic as the effects on the nation’s economy are going to be severe and long lasting; and this form of pain is going to affect the vast majority of Americans. The monies authorized by Congress to keep the economy going will be depleted in a matter of a few weeks and economic activity will be slow to recover. Moreover, there may be entire industries that never recover leading to widespread unemployment for many months, if not years, to come.
Thank you, Mr. President, for your excellent and far-sighted leadership.