Another Stark Warning:Competence & Integrity Matter

This article is a follow-up to an article I addressed to Millennials and members of Generations X and Z warning them of the dangers that they face if Donald Trump is allowed to serve a second term as our nation’s president. This article is directed at those Democratic politicians who are calling on President Biden to discontinue his presidential campaign. They are seemingly motivated by the fear that Biden’s age-related infirmities make him too weak a candidate to motivate Democratic and independent voters to participate in the forthcoming general elections and that could result in their own re-elections being placed in jeopardy. In his place they would like a yet to be determined more vigorous and charismatic nominee who could excite their constituents. Stated another way, they want a messiah to reveal himself and save them from their worst fears.

The American working class was similarly looking for their own messiah in the 2016 presidential election—a man who could save them from their declining standard of living forced upon them by a seemingly disinterested and dysfunctional Congress. Who they elected was a con man par excellence who promised that he alone could reverse their fortunes. He would “drain the swamp” and “make America great again.”  As they soon came to learn, their messiah double-crossed them and enacted another large tax cut for the wealthy, channeling even more of the nation’s wealth away from then and who left the nation’s economy in far worse shape than when he had assumed the presidency.

My experience is that messiah’s are currently in extremely short supply; and if you are hoping for a miracle, you had better roll up your sleeves, get to work and make it happen. Yes, there are a number of Democratic politicians who are more vigorous and charismatic than “Sleepy Joe” who failed in his presidential bids in 1984, 1988 and 2008. He even lost the first three Democratic primary elections in the 2020 election cycle before Congressman James Clyburn wisely stepped in and urged Democratic voters to coalesce around Biden.

The problem is that simply hoping for a messianic figure to come and save their Party and its down-ballot candidates is a bad strategy. All political candidates have flaws and trying to pick the most promising one is a very challenging process and more likely to generate disunity than a pathway to victory. This is especially true when the time-frame for choosing another candidate is compressed. As of this date, no potentially viable replacement for Biden has emerged.  That’s probably because those who might have greater popular appeal have chosen not to step forward knowing that it would be virtually impossible for them to raise the necessary funds and put together a national campaign organization between now and when voting begins.

The simple fact is that despite his awkward gait, his often frozen expressions and his occasional memory lapses, Biden still has an amazing understanding of the workings of the American government and foreign relationships, all of which were amply on display in his press conference following last week’s meeting of NATO leaders. It’s these qualities along with his good judgment and a deep sense of compassion which led to his remarkable record of achievements during his term as president. Indeed, his presidential record is on a par with those of other outstanding U.S. presidents such as FDR and LBJ even though the American public is yet to refer to him as “JRB.”

When you compare Biden’s record in office with Trump’s, it’s hard to understand why every American is not wholly behind him. Indeed, Biden’s record as president would have been even more praiseworthy had Trump not stepped in and requested his acolytes in the Congress to refuse to consider the bi-partisan immigration and border safety legislation which he proposed and which was negotiated by a handful of Senators. Trump’s reasoning was that he didn’t want to give Biden another victory to run on. This action loudly bespeaks how Trump plans to weigh his own interests in governing our nation.

Of course, the question faced by voters is not which of these two men did the best job while in office, but rather who will do the best job if re-elected. Even using that standard, the choice between the two candidates is easy. Trump has vowed to take measures that will transform our democracy into a Putin-style dictatorship. Those measures include extending his tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy which, among other things will raise the nation’s level of indebtedness and hamstring its economy. In addition, he has pledged to pressure Ukraine into ceding its two eastern provinces to Russia, placing western Europe in danger and wetting the appetites of Putin and other autocratic leaders to expand their country’s borders. By contrast, Biden not only intends to allow the Trump tax cuts to expire, but to use the additional revenues to finish the multitude of projects he has initiated in his first term, like improving our nation’s infrastructure and developing new technologies that will drive our nation’s future economic growth. A more complete listing of Biden’s plans for the next four years has been assembled by USA Today.

You may be thinking that Biden’s agenda is certainly more appealing, but most Americans are low-information voters who have little knowledge about the nation’s economic condition and have no understanding of the effects of governmental actions on the nation’s economy. Moreover, they pay little attention to campaign promises assuming that all politicians are inveterate liars. That leads them (a) to only focus on subjects that they can readily understand like cultural issues (such as abortions policies and attitudes toward individuals with non-binary gender orientations) and (b) to vote their personal prejudices based upon race, sex and national origin.

American voters are also strongly influenced by their perceptions of the candidates’ personae. Is he a candidate who can unite the nation (like George Washington, Dwight Eisenhower and FDR) or one who is uninspiring (like Calvin Coolidge and Millard Fillmore)? Is he respected and admired by other national leaders (like Winston Churchill) or one viewed as a weak appeaser (like Neville Chamberlain)? Is he effective in implementing his agenda (like LBJ) or deemed unable to do so (like James Buchanan)? As we have come to learn, Trump’s façade as a strong leader and capable administrator is just that – a façade masking his incompetence and dishonesty. Remember, he’s the man that bankrupted six companies and was only able to resurrect the financial fortune he inherited from his father by depicting a business titan on television.

Trump was elected in 2016 largely because he was perceived as strong and knowledgeable businessman capable of making the Congress more responsive to the needs of Americans and leading the nation out of a period of perceived economic malaise. In that election, being a government “outsider” was viewed favorably which was not the case in 2020. Even though Trump had built a significant following of highly motivated and loyal supporters during his term in office, he failed to be re-elected because he was deemed to be self-absorbed, untrustworthy, divisive and an ineffective president. His campaign was also hindered by the fact that that he had badly mishandled the Covid pandemic, the only significant (non-self-inflicted) crisis he had faced during his four years in office (see, “Understanding Trump’s Voter Appeal”).

You shouldn’t conclude that Trump was wholly unsuccessful in his attempt to be re-elected in 2020. He received 74.2 million votes, more votes than any previous president.  President Obama in 2012 had received 69.9 million votes and the most votes received by any previous Republican president was the 62.0 million votes for George W. Bush in 2004. Of course, Trump’s 4.3 million vote margin over Obama’s 2012 vote tally is largely attributable to the fact that there had been a 15+ million increase in the number of registered voters between 2012 and 2020. Still, Trump’s vote total in 2020 is truly remarkable, particularly when you consider that the nation’s economy was in virtual free-fall at the time of the 2020 election.

But as effective as Trump is in motivating his supporters, he may be even more effective in motivating voters who support his opponents. Going into the 2020 election Biden was perceived as uninspiring, albeit honest, likeable and highly experienced in the workings of the federal government. Still, he racked up a popular vote total of 81.2 million, roughly 7 million more votes than Trump. Biden’s vote count in 2020 was also 11 +million more votes than the popular and charismatic Barack Obama had received in 2012. That means that a moderately appealing candidate prone to verbal gaffes like “Sleepy Joe” in an election against Trump won the votes of over two-thirds of the number of persons added to the nation’s voting rolls during the intervening eight years. I should also point out that in 2020 down-ballot Democratic candidates generally received a higher percentage of the votes cast in their districts than Biden.

Although Trump’s attraction to MAGA supporters and a significant percentage of wealthy individuals has not diminished since the 2020 election, his over-all appeal to independent voters (as well as many Republican voters) has significantly diminished. That’s because he has been the subject of a number of event that reflect badly on his honesty and integrity. They include his having incited the January 6th attack on the Capitol, his four criminal indictments, his adverse verdicts in the two defamation cases brought by E. Jean Carroll and one in the litigation instituted by the New York Attorney General for defrauding the creditors of the Trump Organization. Also adversely affecting his public approval rating is his having facilitated the overturning of the Roe v. Wade decision.  This means that any credible presidential nominee of the Democratic Party has a very good chance of defeating Trump.

There is nevertheless a question whether President Biden even meets that relatively low standard. Admittedly, his poor performance in the June 27th debate with Trump has raised doubts over the continued viability of his campaign for re-election. Yes, he appeared weak and confused at the beginning of the debate causing many to wonder whether he might be afflicted by some undisclosed infirmity. Moreover, his improved performance during the second half of the debate and his subsequent interview by George Stephanopoulos did little to reverse that impression. By contrast, however, his subsequent performance in his news conference following the NATO meeting demonstrated that he still has an extraordinary understanding of foreign policy issues and continues to exercise sound judgment in dealing with complex issues. On top of that, he surrounds himself with bright and capable people providing assurance that there will be few, if any, significant blunders during a second Biden administration.

While impressions of strength and charisma matter, of far greater importance are the qualities that actually make presidencies successful. They include, knowledge and experience, good judgment, honesty and integrity and the ability to win the trust of our allies as well as that of the American public. Not only is Joe Biden well-endowed with each of these qualities, it should be remembered that it doesn’t take much vitality and charisma to successfully employ them.

All of these qualities, however, are sorely lacking in Donald Trump. As we learned during the Covid pandemic, he bases his decisions on what is good for Donald J. Trump rather than what is good for the nation. He knows little about the operations of our federal government while insisting that he (albeit a draft dodger) knows more than his generals and others whom he has chosen to advise him. It’s not just that Trump proclaims to have superior knowledge and judgment than his advisers, this dangerous attitude is further evidenced by the fact that he values personal loyalty higher than expertise when selecting his Cabinet heads and advisers.

Trump’s principal disqualifying quality is that he is a totally dishonest individual, having cheated on each of his three wives. He also cheats while playing golf and completing his tax returns. He even advertised Trump Tower as having 68 floors (when in actuality it only has 58) and that his apartment in that building covers 30,000 square feet (when it only measures 11,000 square feet). More importantly, he has been found guilty of defrauding his creditors and has a reputation for short-changing his suppliers and sub-contractors. Thus, it should be no shock to anyone that he has been found to have made more than 30,000 false statements during his presidency.

Almost by any standard Biden is a much stronger candidate than Trump; and Trump’s toxic qualities are perhaps the greatest force in driving would-be Biden voters to the polls. That’s what happened in 2020 and its even more likely to happen in 2024, especially when you consider Trump’s agenda for his second term which has been laid out for him by The Heritage Foundation in a 900+ page document entitled “Project 2025.” A large part of Trump’s voter appeal is the vocal support he receives from Republican politicians whom he intimidates by threatening to turn their voters against them. It brings to mind the statement attributed to Mark Green, a Republican Congressman from Tennessee. When asked to sign a petition against the House’s confirmation of Biden’s election, he is reported to have whispered to a colleague, “The things we do for the Orange Jesus.” Trump’s popularity among MAGA voters is also ably boosted by elements of the right-wing media that cater their coverage to appeal to those Americans captivated by Trump’s perceived strongman personae.

What the Democratic Party needs is not another candidate, but a unified Party that will whole-heartedly support the candidacies of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. You and your colleagues need to get out and explain to your constituents that the Biden/Harris administration has been good for our nation. More importantly, their second term will be even better especially if Republican legislators stop worshiping at the altar of their ersatz messiah and start doing what their voters elected them to do; namely, to work in a collegial manner with their Democratic counter-parts in making America stronger and improving the lives of its citizens.

p.s. ​I’m just as petrified as you over the possibility of a second Trump presidency, but this situation calls for level-headed analysis, not panic, and a determination to inform voters of what is at stake in this election.