The Final Stretch
With just a little over a week before the elections, the nation is anxiously awaiting their outcome. While some Americans started looking forward to the coming elections the day Donald Trump was inaugurated, I was more optimistic. I thought that President Trump would be impeached and removed within his first two years in office. I obviously underestimated the tolerance of Senate Republicans for his lies, incompetence, abuse of authority and disregard for laws and political norms. Even though it now looks like the Democrats are headed for a big victory, we witnessed a drama like this four years ago and it didn’t have a happy ending. Still, I’m hopeful that not only will we get new residents in the White House, but also a new Senate Majority Leader and that much of the damage inflicted upon our nation by our current President can be repaired over the next few years.
As the election approaches, the cable news channels fill each day with pundits speculating about the implications of each of the President’s daily tweets and outrageous statements. He is a master at capturing the attention of the media and operates under the presumption that every minute that they spend discussing him, they are not discussing his opponent. Even so, not all news is good news even for this President. There are several groups of disaffected Republicans who are running vicious television advertisements against him; and these seem to be taking a toll on independent and Republican voters as well as on the President’s ego. In addition, a significant number of former Republican senators and cabinet officers have publicly announced that they will either be voting for Joe Biden or at least not supporting President Trump. These include George W. Bush, Tom Ridge, Carly Fiorina, Christine Whitman, Colin Powell, Chuck Hagel, John Kasich, Ray LaHood, Robert Gates, John Warner and William Weld. In Republican circles, such disloyalty is frowned upon and is not tolerated among existing office holders. That explains why virtually all currently elected Republicans have declined to announce whom they will be supporting this November. Even so, Mitt Romney and Jeff Flake have already disclosed that they have voted and their choice wasn’t President Trump.
The President has not been doing well in the polls and is trailing former Vice President Biden by more than the margin of error both nationally and in most of the “battle ground” states. This is no guarantee of how the election will end as President Trump was significantly behind Secretary Clinton at this point in the 2016 election. There is, however, a significant difference. This time, there are fewer undecided voters. Whereas, most undecided voters in 2016 were willing to take a chance on Trump, most have learned enough about him to be wary of giving him a second term. On top of that, Vice President Biden has picked up some unusual endorsements including two from The New England Journal of Medicine and Scientific American which in their respective 208 and 175-year histories have not previously endorsed a presidential candidate. In addition, Nature, The Lancet and Science magazines endorsed Biden in obvious reaction to Trump’s unwillingness to base his decisions on established science. In an even more unusual development, The New York Times devoted its entire “Week In Review” Section to a series of articles explaining why Trump is unqualified and unfit to serve as our President. The President, however, remains the choice of Fox News and a dozen or more radio talk-show hosts and an untold number of on-line media sites.
The President and His Supporters.
It’s difficult to explain the President’s popularity among his supporters which include many farmers, factory workers and non-college educated retirees. For the most part, his supporters have been among the many victims of his incompetence and his political agenda which favors the wealthy. Their physical well-being is being threatened by his mishandling of the pandemic and their savings and livelihoods are being ravaged by his trade wars and the pandemic’s economic fall-out. Although the President claims that he wants another stimulus package that would be even larger than the one adopted by House Democrats, he has yet to personally join the discussions with Speaker Pelosi or to order his negotiators to strike a deal. In short, his concerns about the economic plight being visited upon his supporters are simply political posturing. He even boasted that he could get Senate Republicans to go along with any deal that might be struck with House Democrats, but so far he has been heeding the request of Senate Majority Leader McConnell that no deal be struck before the election so that the members of his caucus will not have to take a position that might endanger their chances of re-election.
Yet, the President’s supporters whose lives and livelihoods he has neglected remain eager to attend his rallies, wearing their MAGA hats and holding Trump placards. A few even wear face masks bearing Trump’s name. There are at least two reasons behind their zeal. First, Trump openly supports their own racist and white supremacist beliefs and is the first politician since George Wallace to give credence to views which they have been suppressing for the past few decades. Second, Trump openly attacks college educated Americans and members of the press that his followers perceive as “looking down” on them. In that sense, he is their champion, eager to fight a battle of ideas which they feel unqualified to fight for themselves. These emotions are sufficiently strong to overcome the many hardships which Trump’s actions and policies are causing them to endure.
The President’s statements and action reveal that he is clearly aware that both he and his party are facing an uphill battle in this election. Evidencing his level of concern are his TV advertisements warning that a Biden victory will bring about economic ruin and destroy healthcare and democracy in America. Even at his rallies he has said that if he loses he will never return to the state where he is speaking and that he may even leave the country which would be a certain applause-line in most other settings. The President’s waning political fortunes are also evidenced by the fact that his candidacy is largely being promoted on the campaign trail by his children. Most Republican members of Congress have already begun to distance themselves from him. When interviewed, they usually duck questions about the President’s latest words or actions. This enables them to avoid the no-win situation of either being tarnished by their support of him or alienating the members of their political base who continue to admire him. For his part, the President has confided to major Republican donors that it is doubtful that their party will be able to control either the House or the Senate next year.
Voting By Mail
The President has been constantly asserting that he can only lose the election if the Democrats steal it. His principal contention is that Democrats will accomplish this through their use of mail ballots which the President claims are prone to fraud of some unspecified variety. In furtherance of his opposition to voting by mail, the President has also brought or encouraged lawsuits that would prevent unsolicited distributions of mail ballots. Nevertheless, because there is no evidence of voter fraud associated mail voting, these cases have been rejected even by judges appointed by the President.
Notwithstanding the President’s objections, in view of the danger posed by the coronavirus, many states have sought to expand their use of voting by mail. To counter this effort, the President has had the U.S. Postal Service undermine its own operations, removing mail boxes from street corners and decommissioning mail sorting equipment at postal distribution centers. This effort, in turn, has been countered by election officials through the deployment of ballot drop boxes located at or near polling stations. In Texas, Republican Governor Gregg Abbott issued an order limiting such ballot drop-boxes to one per county, a move that was sustained by a local court even though Harris County (in which Houston is located) has roughly a hundred times the number of residents of some of the state’s smaller counties.
In California (where there is unrestricted use of mail ballots), Republicans have tried a different tactic; they deployed their own mail-ballot drop-boxes. This was met with an order of the state’s attorney general deeming this action to be illegal. Republicans, however, refused to comply with that order, arguing that California law permits ballot “harvesting.” That led to negotiations regarding the permitted locations for, and labeling of, those drop boxes which are yet to be resolved.
These are not the only legal issues posed by the use of mail ballots. States differ as to their practice in counting mail ballots. In some states, like Florida, mail ballots are processed as they are received and voters are notified and given a chance to cure deficiencies in their ballots. In other states, mail ballots are not even examined until all votes cast at polling stations have been tabulated and it is determined that the mail ballots could alter the results of the election. While that procedure makes perfect sense when the percentage of mail ballots is relatively small, it will pose serious problems this year when mail ballots could constitute an appreciable percentage of the total votes cast. Because of this procedure, the results of the election in states applying it may not even be available until several days after the election. There have been a number of lawsuits seeking to change state vote tabulation processes, suits which the courts have almost uniformly rejected, finding that such changes require legislative action. There have also been a number of legal proceedings seeking to extend the deadline for the receipt of mail ballots owing to problems being encountered in timely delivery of the mails. These have engendered mixed results.
Other Voter Suppression Efforts
Actions to discourage or impede the use of mail ballots are not the only form of voter suppression being employed in this election. There have been numerous reports of limited numbers of polling stations in areas with high percentages of Black, brown and Latino residents. This is usually attributed to the difficulty in recruiting workers to serve at polling locations. While this, in fact, is the case in some areas, Democratic recruiting efforts have resulted in a surplus of poll workers in many locations. As in years past, there have also been efforts to purge voting rolls especially among minority groups. This has been met with heavy resistance by Democrats and in some cases litigation seeking to prevent it.
Claiming that Democrats are going to try to stuff the ballot boxes with ballots of unregistered voters, the President has made public appeals for his supporters to stake out polling locations to assure the integrity of the election. While state laws strictly limit the number and identity of non-voters who can enter a polling station, this does not preclude a candidate’s supporters from congregating around the polling stations as long as they don’t prevent or intimidate voters from casting their ballots. In Michigan, the state’s attorney general has issued an order that firearms may not be brought to polling stations. Anticipating mischief of this nature, the Democratic Party in most states have trained a cadre of observers to report any such activity.
Despite all of the obstacles being erected by Republicans, early voting has taken off at a record breaking pace, and the evening news shows long lines of voters standing in the rain to vote. In some cases, voters have waited up to nine hours to cast their ballots; that this is just early voting tells you what a madhouse it will be on election day. Because the Democratic party has encouraged the use of mail ballots and early voting, Democrats are likely in the lead now, but that dynamic will change on election day when most Republicans are likely to vote.
The Debates
The Commission on Presidential Debates scheduled three debates between President Trump and Vice President Biden, utilizing rules agreed upon by the candidates’ respective campaign organizations. The first debate was a total disaster, with President Trump making up many of his own facts and constantly interrupting Vice President Biden. Most commentators expressed difficulty in even following what was being said and characterized it as an embarrassment to the most powerful nation on the earth. One of the rules of the debates was that the candidates would be tested for the coronavirus on the day of each debate. President Trump tested positive for the virus a couple of days after the debate and declined to confirm that he had been tested on the day of the debate. In response, the Commission on Presidential Debates decided that the second debate would be conducted virtually, prompting President Trump to withdraw.
For the third and final debate, the Commission on Presidential Debates again changed the rules so that initial two-minute answers to questions posed by the moderator would be without interruption, a rule that was enforced by turning off the other candidate’s microphone. This worked reasonably well, allowing each candidate to provide coherent responses. Dana Milbank, writing in the Washington Post, observed, “The only thing worse for Trump than an unwatchable debate was a watchable one.” Milbank went on to characterize the debate as one between reality and fantasy with Biden addressing the former and Trump espousing the latter.
October Surprises
In prior presidential elections there have been one or more “October Surprises” in which highly detrimental information concerning one or both candidates is publicly released. In 2016, it was the “Access Hollywood” video in which the President made a number of comments highly offensive to women. With respect to Secretary Clinton, it was the disclosure by FBI Director Comey that the closed investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s emails was being reopened. This election, the President has been pressing the Department of Justice to announce one or more investigations into Vice President Biden, but so far to no avail. However, he did make a surprise announcement that he was providing the nation’s farmers with a $29 billion bailout. To explain the glaring absence of a Congressional appropriation for these disbursements, he asserted that they were being funded by China. (Query: does this remind you of a “great beautiful wall to be paid for by Mexico?) This new fantasy is presumably based upon the President’s mistaken belief (or disingenuous assertion) that the tariffs he imposed on Chinese imports are paid by the Chinese manufacturers and not by their American purchasers.
In the meantime, The New York Times, which had obtained copies of some of the President’s tax returns, has been disclosing information about his financial condition and some of his more questionable financial transactions. Those revelations cast doubt on the extent of his wealth and his business acumen. They also raise questions about the source of hundreds of millions of dollars that he has borrowed and why received large sums of money from China. While the President has denied the veracity of these disclosures, he has continued to refuse to disclose his any of his prior tax returns, implying that even though four years have passed since he first offered that excuse there has been no resolution of the audits of any of those returns.
Also in the nature of an October Surprise, just a day before the final debate, John Ratcliffe, President Trump’s the newly appointed Director of National Intelligence, held a short press conference in which he announced that Russia and Iran were both hard at work trying to influence the outcome of our elections. While it is highly doubtful that the emails that had been send to a large number of registered Democrats earlier that day were part of an effort by the Iranians to adversely affect President Trump’s chances of re-election, we have known since the results of the Mueller investigation were released that the Russians did before and have continued to try to tip the election in favor of President Trump.
There have even been stories that the hard-drive of Hunter Biden’s computer has mysteriously made its way into the hands of Rudy Giuliani; and in the final debate, President Trump made veiled references to emails sent to and from Vice President Biden. What is not clear is whether Mr. Giuliani actually fell heir to the Vice President’s emails or whether the Russians, having been unsuccessful in hacking them, simply made up a fresh batch to dump on the electorate as election day approached. In addition, misinformation, disinformation and conspiracy theories continue to abound all across the internet and social media as the elections approach. At this point, however, there are few undecided voters and approximately one third of the nation’s voters have already cast their ballots with the result that any disclosure at this point may not have much impact.
The Real Winner
Despite all of the attention being paid to the election, the coronavirus seems to be outpacing the politicians and is starting to look like the big winner this fall. The average daily number of new confirmed cases across the U.S. is now running over 70,000 and has exceeded 80,000 (a new record) over each of the past two days. According to White House Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, the Trump administration is now ceasing its efforts to stop the spread of the virus and is now focusing on developing vaccines and therapeutics to treat the virus. This is a particularly shocking revelation as it remains unclear when either a vaccine or a therapeutic will be available and how effective either might be. It appears that the President has abandoned his earlier fantasy that the virus will simply disappear and has embraced a new one that a pharmaceutical relief is just around the corner.
Not only have the current number of daily new confirmed cases of the virus exceeded the levels reached last July, but there is good reason to believe that they will get much higher and may even exceed 100,000 new cases a day by election day. The big difference between now and last July is that new cases are on the rise in over 30 states as opposed to the roughly a dozen states that caused the spike in July. In addition, the July spike was subdued through the imposition of requirements that face masks be worn in public places. No such easy fix is currently available for a number of reasons. First, face-mask mandates are difficult to enforce and most Americans willing to accept such restrictions are already complying with them. Second, schools are now open, placing millions of individuals in close proximity with each other. Third, cold weather is now upon us, forcing restaurant goers to dine indoors where the risk of transmission is greater. Perhaps most importantly, the President and Dr. Scott Atlas, the President’s current favored medical advisor, are spreading the gospel that face masks are ineffective in preventing the spread of the virus and that the virus is only a danger to a small percentage of Americans.
In addition to downplaying the dangers posed by the virus, the President has been on the campaign trail, holding rallies is cities in various battleground states, with attendees standing shoulder-to-shoulder (mostly without face masks). At these events, which frequently last up to two hours, attendees joyfully applaud the President’s promises of a strong economic recovery in 2021 and echo his chants of “Lock Him/Her Up” in reference to Vice President Biden and Governor Whitmer of Michigan. These are destined to be super-spreader events rivaling the President’s earlier rally in Tulsa and his recent Rose Garden event at which he announced his nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to replace the recently diseased Justice Ginsburg. Of course, by the time the effects of these rallies will be apparent, most Americans will have already voted.
Going Forward
Also capturing the nation’s attention has been the rush by Senate Republicans to confirm Judge Barrett’s nomination. Knowing Mitch McConnell’s predilection to take advantage of every opportunity as well as his notable lack of shame, Judge Barrett’s confirmation always appeared to be a certainty. Based upon her prior writings, she will join the Court’s other conservative Justices in overturning Roe v. Wade, striking down the Affordable Care Act and, given a chance, deciding election issues in favor of Republicans. Some Republican senators, like Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins and Joni Ernst, who stood with Mitch McConnell in refusing to consider President Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland, are now voting to confirm Judge Barrett’s nomination. They may soon pay a political price for their perfidy, but in running for office in the Republican Party, they took a vow not to be deterred by either reason or shame.
The Democrats will have few options unless they sweep the elections, in which case they will have to adopt legislation reinstating the ACA and laws assuring the availability of abortion services. No matter how bipartisan an approach they may take, they are not likely to receive much cooperation from Senate Republicans. Former Senate Majority leader, Harry Reid, has already published a warning that Democrats should abandon efforts at bipartisanship in the Senate unless real progress is achieved within three weeks. This means that what is left of the Senate’s filibuster rule will have to be jettisoned, likely putting an end to bipartisanship within the legislative branch of the federal government. This appears to be the inevitable result of the game plan adopted by the Republican Party described in my article entitled “Partisan Politics.”
The first tasks confronting the Biden administration will be to arrest the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and restore the nation’s economy. Despite the legislative obstacles that they will surely face, Democrats should persevere and not only rectify the likely results of Judge Barrett’s appointment to the Supreme Court, but also should go on to adopt legislation and regulations addressing climate change, electoral district gerrymandering, voter suppression tactics, income and wealth inequality and criminal justice reform. The next two years should not be a period of equivocation and compromise, but rather a period of steadfast determination, as nothing short of that will restore our nation to a manageable path. Even bold legislative achievements will not necessarily place the nation back on a sustainable course as any legislation adopted is likely to receive court challenges and the Democrats are not likely to receive favorable treatment from the more than 200 federal court judges appointed by President Trump.