Double or Nothing
“Double or Nothing” is used by gamblers to describe a bet by someone who is attempting to recoup a string of losses by risking all of his remaining chips in a single high-risk wager. This seems to describe what Vladimir Putin is now doing. Like any good poker player, Putin first tried to intimidate the Ukrainians by displaying his strength and talking tough. He lined the Russian-Ukrainian border with 100,000 soldiers assuming (or possibly just hoping) that the Ukrainians would panic and rush to make territorial concessions. When that didn’t occur, he moved additional troops and equipment to the border. When Ukraine continued to reject his demands, he further increased the number of troops along the border to approximately 150,000. Finding that the Ukrainians were still holding firm he raised the specter of employing nuclear weapons. None of these efforts elicited the desired response forcing Putin to actually proceed with his threatened invasion lest he dispel the perception that he’s a strong leader (see, “Putin’s Folly”).
As we saw, Putin’s original plan to conquer Ukraine did not go as anticipated. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, unlike many of his predecessors, did not flee his country. Instead, in Churchill-like fashion, he donned military fighting attire and exhorted his countrymen to resist Russia’s invasion. He regularly appeared on national television begging NATO nations for military assistance and openly visited the front lines of the conflict, exposing himself to danger. Owing to the fact that Russia’s invasion plans were ill-conceived and even more poorly executed, their attempt to seize control of Kyiv quickly faltered. In response, Putin re-directed the invasion and instructed his forces to focus on Ukraine’s eastern and southern provinces.
From the very outset Putin tried to make the conflict as brutal and costly as possible. Heavy aerial and artillery attacks pummeled Ukraine’s cities focusing on civilian targets such as homes, schools and hospitals. In addition, Russian ground troops raped and murdered civilians and stole their personal belongings. These tactics led to accusations that Russia was a state sponsor of terrorism and caused the initiation of war crime investigations. At its recent General Assembly meeting, the U.N. condemned Russia’s prosecution of the conflict in Ukraine. These condemnations did not cause Putin to alter his tactics. On the contrary, he seemed to welcome them as his tactics were intended to intimidate the Ukrainian population and the added publicity only served to further that objective.
The early successes of the Ukrainian army in thwarting Russia’s invasion gave NATO nations the confidence to increase both the quantity and nature of their military assistance to Ukraine. Specifically, they supplied mobile long-range rockets (HIMARS) and assisted Ukraine’s army in using them by providing the exact locations of Russian troop congregations and supply depots. Over the summer the Ukrainian army began to slow Russia’s advances into its eastern provinces and earlier this month the Ukrainians launched a counter-offensive which in the course of less than one week resulted in their regaining over 2,500 square miles of territory previously captured by Russia. One of the reasons for this success was Russia’s significant loss of equipment and personnel in the preceding months of constant fighting. Moreover, the morale of Russia’s army was then low as most of the Russian soldiers had not been adequately equipped or mentally prepared for level of resistance they had encountered.
It should be appreciated that Russia has been ruled by czars and dictators for almost 600 years. During those six centuries the Russian people have become programed to permit their rulers to do as they wished as long as their subjects were allowed to carry on their lives in peace. This tacit understanding between the Russian people and their rulers remains in effect today. This, in large measure explains why Putin has gone out of his way to hide the nature and scope of his invasion. First, he referred to it as a “special military operation” and passed laws with stiff penalties prohibiting its being characterized as a “war.” To make sure that his countrymen were kept uninformed he silenced independent news organizations. On top of that, he disseminated disinformation about the war via state-controlled media. These measures, however, did not stop a few thousand individuals from protesting the war for which they were quickly arrested and incarcerated.
When his invasion resulted in heavy losses, Putin tried to remedy the situation by obtaining personnel and equipment from China, Iran, North Korea and member states of the Russian Federation. This enabled him to avoid having to reveal that the invasion was much more than a minor military undertaking. It also obviated the need to interrupt the lives of his countrymen to join his war effort. Even these measures soon proved insufficient. With heavy military assistance from the U.S. and other western democracies, the Ukrainian army was able to halt the progress of Russia’s redirected invasion.
The recent success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive was more than just another military setback; it was a game changer. The morale of the Russian forces, which was already low, fell even further. Also, in their haste to retreat the Russian forces abandoned a great deal of equipment and munitions. According to a recent article by David Brooks, somewhere between 80,000 and 110,000 Russian soldiers have already been killed or wounded and 50% of Russia’s pre-war supply of tanks, 20-30% of its infantry fighting vehicles and 10% of its fighter aircraft have been lost. In addition, Russia has burned through a huge amount of its precision munitions which it has been using to pummel Ukraine cities and towns. Equally distressing to Putin is the fact that these equipment losses cannot easily be replaced as the embargoes imposed by western nations is hampering Russian manufacturing. This situation clearly called for Putin to further reassess his plans.
From Putin’s perspective, accepting defeat was not an option. Yet, a path to victory was anything but clear. China and India had informed him that pursuing the war was a bad idea and North Korea had declined to offer its assistance. Even though Iran provided him with armed aerial drones, they hadn’t altered the course of the conflict. Putin’s conclusion was that he had to double down and try to hold on until winter and hope that cold weather would prevent the Ukrainians from achieving further success on the ground. Winter would also add pressure on Ukraine’s European allies which, without access to Russian oil and natural gas, would not have sufficient energy to run their factories and heat their homes. This would hopefully make them pressure a now-confident President Zelensky to engage in peace negotiations.
As he had done leading up to his invasion, Putin again tried to intimidate the Ukrainians and their allies. To this end he announced a large military call-up consisting of 300,000 reservists, or double the number of troops he had amassed when he commenced his invasion. Not since World War II had Russia initiated such a large call to arms. In addition, Putin warned that he would use all available weaponry if Russia’s territory were attacked, implying that this would include nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. Mindful that his previous references to nuclear weapons had been ignored, he deemed it necessary to warn, “This is not a bluff.”
Putin’s announcements can only be viewed as a monumental change in strategy. For the first seven months of the war he had done everything in his power to downplay to nature and extent of the conflict and shield his nation from what was actually transpiring. These announcements did not go unnoticed by the Russian people and precipitated a new wave of civil unrest, something Putin had desperately sought to avoid. While Russian citizens were willing to accept military action to help Russian sympathizers living in Ukraine, they made it clear that they are not willing to tolerate the conflict if it was going to explode into a war with western democracies and interrupt their lives.
The large draft of military personnel was obviously a very bitter pill for the Russian people to swallow as well as one Putin was obviously very reluctant to order. Immediately following his announcement many young Russian men began to flee the country. Tens of thousands fled to Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Georgia which have long borders with Russia and no requirements for visas. The Associated Press reported that 194,000 young Russians have already fled. The demand for flights out of Russia was so great that the price of a one-way coach ticket from Moscow to Istanbul jumped to over $9,000. Thousands of protesters immediately took to the streets in Moscow and St. Petersburg resulting in the arrests of over 2,000 individuals. One man stormed a local draft center and shot the recruiter stationed there. Even Alla Pugacheva, one of Russia’s most popular entertainers, defied the recently enacted laws banning protests over the war and informed her 3-4 million internet followers of her opposition to the war.
Putin also announced that referendums were to be be held in four Ukraine provinces currently occupied by Russian forces. Those referendums were to determine whether the residents of these provinces wished to join the Russian Federation. One might reasonably question: how can meaningful elections be held in a war zone when much of the population has fled and those remaining are prisoners in their own cities, towns and villages? Such details were of little concern to Putin who cares only about their outcomes which he would insure would be in favor of annexation. To that end Russian soldiers would be going door-to-door with hand-held ballot boxes and managing the polling stations. The sham nature of these elections was so apparent that even former member states of the Soviet Union have refused to recognize their validity. Nevertheless, they are being followed today with an announcement by Putin that the four provinces are now a part of the Russian Federation.
For Putin, the annexation of these provinces will serve at least three important purposes. First, they will allow Russia to take formal control of the most industrialized areas of Ukraine. This is particularly important because Russia has so badly mismanaged its own manufacturing sectors that they are no longer competitive in the world market. Second, the annexation of these areas will enable Putin to claim that his invasion of Ukraine has yielded positive results. Third, their annexation allows Putin to take the position that any effort by the Ukrainians to recapture them would be an attack on Russia, thereby giving him an excuse to use his WMDs. While neither the Ukrainians nor their allies think such actions would justify Putin’s use of WMDs, that possibility at least could serve to increase their level of caution.
Even though Putin announced that those now being drafted would be limited to seasoned military reservists, there are reports that some have no prior military training, a mistake which Putin has uncharacteristically admitted. More importantly, the 15 days of training that they are to receive will not make them battle ready. Such a short period of training would not even be sufficient to adequately prepare those serving in Russia’s military reserves as many are reported to have been away from active duty for several years. In addition, none of newly drafted individuals (irrespective of their prior military experience) are likely to be happy about having to interrupt their lives to fight a war of little or no importance to them. Indeed, their morale will likely be lower than the morale of the active duty soldiers initially sent to fight in Ukraine, if that is even possible.
Putin’s increase the number of his ground troops may only have a minor military impact. First, the new recruits must be equipped and transported to the war zones which will pose some of the same logistical problems faced by the Russian army in the early days of the invasion. In addition, their lack of training will sow confusion and create a host of problems in coordinating their efforts with those forces currently serving in Ukraine. Equally important, large congregations of forces will prove to be easy targets for the Ukrainians especially when you consider their lack of preparation for their deployment and the quality and quantity of the weaponry they will be issued. This means that casualty rates will rise sharply as will the number of troop defections. Casualties and defections will not only compromise Russia’s military effort, but will also lead to further protests within Russia as more adverse news about the war will inevitably reach their hometowns and villages.
At this point the Ukrainians are beginning to sense that victory is at hand and are pressing their western allies for more weapons so they can quickly take advantage of the Russian army’s current precarious position. They also realize that time may not be on their side as their European allies are going to face a tough winter of fuel shortages and could easily reconsider the extent and timing of their support.
For the U.S. and its NATO allies the recent achievements of the Ukrainian armed forces provide no reason to alter their current strategy of assisting the Ukrainians to oust the Russians while not placing Putin into a desperate situation that might prompt him to carry out his threats of escalating the weaponry he is now employing (see, “Biden’s Ukraine Strategy”). Even though their intelligence seems to indicate that Putin’s threat to use nuclear weaponry is just another bluff, it remains a possibility that must be taken seriously. This has prompted President Biden to declare that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons will be countered with “grave consequences.” Putin has already shown that he’s willing to kill thousands of innocent individuals to get what he wants and will raise the stakes as high he can to achieve that end. This means that there is indeed a chance that Putin might not be bluffing. Therefore, the allies’ strategy will continue to be to provide the Ukrainians with the weapons and military intelligence being requesting while counseling President Zelensky to proceed gradually and to take care not to humiliate Putin.
It remains unclear whether Putin’s “double or nothing” bet will be successful. By introducing hundreds of thousands of additional troops into the war he should be able to slow the Ukrainian forces in their quest to recover the territories lost to Russia in the early months of the war. Whether the Russian forces will be able to regain the offensive will be far more difficult. Even so, reversing the losses sustained over the past few weeks may not be sufficient to make Putin’s gamble a success. Thrusting tens of thousands of insufficiently trained and poorly equipped troops into the war is a recipe for disaster. The number of casualties will be staggering as will as the number of desertions. Public opinion within Russia, which was never high, will only grow worse. As a result, even if Putin’s gamble achieves success in the towns and villages of Ukraine, it could still prove to be a disaster if Putin cannot maintain peace in the streets of Russia.